Can the New York Knicks win a playoff series? Certainly. Will they? No.

And there are three reasons: match-ups, match-ups, match-ups. In all likelihood, the Knicks will play the Miami Heat in the first round of the playoffs, a team that is a match-up nightmare for just about the entirety of the NBA, but especially for the Knicks.

In order for the Knicks to be successful they have to play with two units. The first would consist of Baron Davis (PG), Landry Fields (Sg), Carmelo Anthony (SF), Steve Novak (PF) and Tyson Chandler (C). The second unit would consist of Iman Shumpert (PG), J.R. Smith (SG) Steve Novak (SF), Jared Jeffries (PF), and Amare Stoudemire (C).

First of all, everyone knows this isn't going to happen because the coaches, and Amare himself, are not going to want Stoudemire playing as the anchor of the second unit; they want him as part of the first unit. Also, Steve Novak can't play every minute of the game and even if he could, he's a liability defensively. That being said, even if Stoudemire relished the idea of being the anchor of the second unit and Novak turned into a 38 minute iron man, the match-ups against the Heat preclude any such thoughts. Which is fine, because it should be Chandler, not Stoudemire as the anchor for the second unit. So let's break it down:

The starting five for the Miami Heat are(or probably will be because they will want Battier to guard Melo): Chalmers, Wade, Battier, James, and Bosh. In our imaginary starting unit for the Knicks that would mean that Davis has to guard Chalmers, Fields has to guard Wade, Anthony has to guard James, Novak has to guard Battier, and Chandler has to guard Bosh.

Clearly Davis is too old and slow to guard Chalmers, but he's no good against Wade either, so you can't switch the match-up and have Fields guard Chalmers. Then we look at Fields, long and athletic, he's still not good enough to guard Wade; Wade is good for 20-30 pts. in that scenario. Novak couldn't guard Battier to save his life (but thank God battier isn't terrifically offensive minded, though in this scenario he'll probably have it figured out mid-way through game two), and Chandler just isn't athletic enough to guard Bosh or comfortable enough to come out to try and stop Bosh's 15-20 foot shot. But the real problem here is Anthony, who will have to guard James. This is a problem because he will expend a tremendous amount of energy chasing James around, but on the defensive end, it will be Battier (who is an excellent on the ball defender) on Melo, while James guards someone else, maybe Fields (who can't shoot worth a damn, or Novak, who he can muscle up on).

So what will the Knicks coaching staff do? Nothing helpful, I'm afraid, but to be fair to them, they don't have much say in the matter. Davis will be out there because he's the only real viable Point Guard the Knicks have--he'll play either Chalmers or Wade and get lit up by either one or both. Ideally, you'd like Shumpert playing Wade, but then you lose offense and Iman loves to foul almost as much as he loves to hoist up doomed 3 pointers--but then, where does that leave Fields? On the bench as part of the second unit. Melo has to guard James, a no win situation. Then you have two choices for Bosh, you could play Chandler against him, but then you are setting up a situation where Bosh is filling up the cylinder from 10-15 feet, or he's quick enough to drive past him and get to the rim. Or, you could play Amare on him, who has the size and the quickness (depending on the health of his back) to defend Bosh but then, who is Chandler going to guard--Battier? Haslem? Another serious match-up problem as Battier can shoot the 3 and Haslem is athletic enough to blow by him.

If the Knicks want to win this series, they have to think outside the box and hope to hell they can hit 3 pointers. You have Shumpert guard Wade because hell, you have to; he's your best on ball defender. You have Davis and Smith take turns guarding Chalmers (when Davis is in, he plays the point, when Smith is in, Melo runs it) and make him the one who beats you. You put Fields on LeBron, he's big enough and quick enough to make James work for everything (Melo will have to guard him when Novak comes in and Novak would take on Melo's duties of guarding Battier or Haslem). Have Melo guard either Battier or Haslem (whichever is in) so that Melo doesn't expend all his energy on the defensive end, and you attack Bosh with Stoudemire, Jeffries, and Chandler. You can also foul the crap out of Bosh with Harrellson and Jeffries, and have Bill Walker (if he's back in time) and Toney Douglas beat up on LeBron; who cares right? Harrellson and Walker are expendable and you should try to make LeBron beat you from the line.

That would be a starting five of Davis (PG), Shumpert (SG), Fields (SF), Melo (PF), and Stoudemire (C)--not the best offensive looking bunch but it doesn't matter. You're not worrying about scoring against the Heat, you're worrying about keeping them from scoring. You can't beat them in an offensive shoot-out, but you just might be able to defeat them defensively--tire them out, harass them, frustrate them, beat-up on them, and you might get them so out of rhythm, they have no idea what happened. Combine that with steady as she goes scoring from Melo and Stoudemire, and great 3 point shooting out of Novak and Smith and the Knicks just might be able to pull off the upset.

In any case, that's what I would do, but it won't happen. Look for the same old-same old out of the Knicks who, if the gods are with them, might win one game in the series.