The Boston Red Sox--
I was tempted to go with someone else here, namely, Toronto,
for two reasons; 1) At some point The Yankees and Red Sox will not finish one
and two in the east and, 2) There is a lot of turmoil in Red Sox nation right
now. However, I just couldn't do it. Let's see why.
Though new Manager, Bobby Valentine seems to have his hands
full, I'm pretty sure he and the team will over some the adversity. I know that
Valentine questioned Youkilis' desire and effort, and I know that Pedroia came
to his teammate's defense, causing what would seem to be a decisive rift in the
Sox clubhouse, but let's face it, after the heroic collapse at the end of last
season and "beer-gate" I doubt a little spat like this is going to
ruin the Sox' season. For one thing, valentine is a seasoned baseball guy and
manager; he probably knows more about the game than anyone alive and he will
right the ship. Also, the Sox simply have too much talent, ie. too much
invested in this team to let the season go to hell. Once they start winning,
and they will, it will be all smiles in the dugout.
Pitching:
Beckett and Lester are the aces of the rotation. Are they
going to be as dominant as they have in past years, probably not, but they are
good for 16 wins a piece and that could turn out to be a conservative estimate.
Bucholz will find his rhythm and will win big games for the Sox; he's got great
stuff and he's a tough kid. After the way Doubront pitched against the Yanks,
I'm willing to take a leap of faith in this kid and say he'll win 12-14
games. As for bard, he's got electric
stuff but he's played the relief role most of his big league career, he just
needs to figure out how to be a starter in this league, which he will
eventually do.
Relief Pitching:
Obviously, this is where the Sox are hurting. With the loss
of Papelbon and the injury to new closer Andrew Bailey, the Sox have no one of
note in their bullpen and it shows. The bullpen is losing games for this squad
right now, but look for the Sox to correct the issue, either via the trade or
bringing someone up through the farm system.
Offense:
The Sox still have a potent offense led by Adrian Gonzalez
and the resurgent, Big Papi. Not only will Gonzalez hit over .300 but he's good
for 30+ homers and 110+ RBI, combine that with Ortiz' 30 homers and close to a
100 (if not over) RBI and you've got a really good core. Youkilis will find his
bat as he always does and will definitely end up at or over .300 and at or over
30 homers. Also, look for Pedroia to contribute mightily. He'll have a line of
about .320 avg./ 26 HR/ 95 RBI this year and look for him to finish at or above
25 stolen bases. Obviously one of the major concerns for the Sox is their
outfield. Crawford seems perpetually hurt and he didn't look all that terrific
last year when he was healthy. I'm not sure if he was a flash in the pan or
not, or if he is one of those guys who gets the big contract and rolls over, or
if he was legitimately trying to figure out playing for a new team, but in
order for the Red Sox to be successful, Crawford has to pull it together and
have a good year for them. More disconcerting than Crawford is the Ellsbury
situation. We were told he would be out for something like six weeks, but the
recent trade for Marlon Byrd suggests otherwise. If Ellsbury can't make it back
this year, the Sox are in trouble; not only would they be missing their place
setter, but they'll had to lose his speed on the bases as well as his new found
power.
All of this being said, the Sox still have a potent offense
and they will definitely piece together a winning season. However, look for a
more consistent season out of them; they won't go on an 80-50 stretch like they
did last year, but they have too much talent to slip below the Toronto's and
Tampa Bay's and Baltimore's in the division. I'm going to say they finish
somewhere in the neighborhood of 86-76, a full ten games out of first place,
and that they will miss the playoffs for the second straight season.
To those of you in Red Sox nation, I'm sorry, but you have
to be realistic.
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